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Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to electrify the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations may not be the boiling pot of British politics, the cap which was tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain than in proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy and Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past

This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to keep open the possibility of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a clutch of senior ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.